Friday, December 02, 2005
Dogcrap Green - Who I am
If you have been following me from the begining, you must be wondering "How does Dogcrap Green do it?". you may think I either now everything about sports, or every freaking statistic. How else could I be picking games played between schools smaller than most community colleges one minute, and then sweep the NFL the next day.
The truth is I rarely watch any sports, never read the sports sections of a paper. Don't own a book on statistics.
So how do I do it?
I study the predetermine money flow.
when I was a student at Arizona State, because I had a bookie the other kids would place their bets with me. Living in a dorm I had friends from all over the country in every bookie's market. These bets these kids placed with me were typically $5.00. An embarrassing amount to pace along, so I never bothered. An interesting trend developed. 65% of the time 65% of the money was on the losing end and 35% would then be on the winning side of the bet. It got to the point to where if the pool of my bets were $35 on team "A" and $15 on team "B". I would then bet $200 on team "B" with my bookie. If the difference was $40 on team "B", I would bet $400 on team "A". That was one amazing winning streak I was on.
If the Star Dust Hotel and Casino has to print out dozen of lines. How can not only these people not be able to pick out of those dozens and dozens line 5 mistakes and exploit them? What is even more amazing is how day after day the losing money would study the stats and the players, and day after day find themselves on the losing end. And these losers were no more stupid than you, or me. In fact most were smarter than me.
Here is the best analogy I know of. Every construction company that builds multi-million dollar bridges has a small group of people that put the bids together with their detail opinion of the likely costs. On bid day fifty one uppers and fifty one downers circle this bid with their "expertise". Some disparately want the company to get the job. These experts will show why there is too much money in the bid. Others want to say "I told you so" a year into construction. These experts are the one downers. The truth is if they were looking at the same job with a 13 million price tag, or a 14 million price tag. They would utilize their expertise the same way. At the time of the bid I always knew who would be the one uppers and the one downers and how many of each there would be. In your business you may have something similar, we all know about the I TOLD YOU SO PERSON. A similar concept.
99.99% of all handicappers are one uppers and one downers.
The NEED the sports book to tell them the line so that they can say it should be trim two points. The positions these people will take on a game can be predicted. With every game playing today X% had the prejudice towards one side of the line and Y% had their on the other side. The question is whose money is the Star Dust Hotel and Casino going after? Because I have news for you. They know their customers would have bet the same way regardless of the line THEY INVENTED. A point to 4 points makes no difference to the better, but it of course makes a difference on your odds to win.
The truth is I rarely watch any sports, never read the sports sections of a paper. Don't own a book on statistics.
So how do I do it?
I study the predetermine money flow.
when I was a student at Arizona State, because I had a bookie the other kids would place their bets with me. Living in a dorm I had friends from all over the country in every bookie's market. These bets these kids placed with me were typically $5.00. An embarrassing amount to pace along, so I never bothered. An interesting trend developed. 65% of the time 65% of the money was on the losing end and 35% would then be on the winning side of the bet. It got to the point to where if the pool of my bets were $35 on team "A" and $15 on team "B". I would then bet $200 on team "B" with my bookie. If the difference was $40 on team "B", I would bet $400 on team "A". That was one amazing winning streak I was on.
If the Star Dust Hotel and Casino has to print out dozen of lines. How can not only these people not be able to pick out of those dozens and dozens line 5 mistakes and exploit them? What is even more amazing is how day after day the losing money would study the stats and the players, and day after day find themselves on the losing end. And these losers were no more stupid than you, or me. In fact most were smarter than me.
Here is the best analogy I know of. Every construction company that builds multi-million dollar bridges has a small group of people that put the bids together with their detail opinion of the likely costs. On bid day fifty one uppers and fifty one downers circle this bid with their "expertise". Some disparately want the company to get the job. These experts will show why there is too much money in the bid. Others want to say "I told you so" a year into construction. These experts are the one downers. The truth is if they were looking at the same job with a 13 million price tag, or a 14 million price tag. They would utilize their expertise the same way. At the time of the bid I always knew who would be the one uppers and the one downers and how many of each there would be. In your business you may have something similar, we all know about the I TOLD YOU SO PERSON. A similar concept.
99.99% of all handicappers are one uppers and one downers.
The NEED the sports book to tell them the line so that they can say it should be trim two points. The positions these people will take on a game can be predicted. With every game playing today X% had the prejudice towards one side of the line and Y% had their on the other side. The question is whose money is the Star Dust Hotel and Casino going after? Because I have news for you. They know their customers would have bet the same way regardless of the line THEY INVENTED. A point to 4 points makes no difference to the better, but it of course makes a difference on your odds to win.
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