Friday, December 30, 2005

 
Please note the numerous money lines I am playing. All odds are from Nine sports book.

NBA
Fri 12/30 Phoenix Suns -7 -110 -320 Charlotte Bobcats +7 -110 +260

College Basketball
Fri 12/30 Tulsa +12 -110 ML +600 BYU -12 -110 ML-800
Fri 12/30 Cornell +6 -110 ML +220 Long Beach State-6 -110 ML-260
Fri 12/30 Wisc Milwaukee +2 -110ML +110 Montana -2 -110 ML-130
Fri 12/30 Idaho State +3½ -110 ML +145 Arkansas LR -3½ -110 ML-165
Fri 12/30 Binghamton +20 -110 Utah State -20 -110

Selection
Charlotte Bobcats +7 risk 110 to win 100
Charlotte Bobcats to win risk 50 to win 130
Tulsa +12 risk 110 to win 100
Tulsa to win risk 50 to win 300
Cornell +6 risk 110 to win 100
Cornell to win risk 50 to win 110
Wisc Milwaukee +2 risk 110 to win 100
Arkansas -3 ½ risk 110 to win 100
Binghamton +20 risk 110 to win 100

 

200 more points added to the pile

What else is new?

Thursday, December 29, 2005

 

Time to make some Money

Please note that not only am I picking Miami against the spread, I am also picking them to win out right

NBA
Thu 12/29 Miami Heat +5½ -110 To win +200 Detroit Pistons -5 ½ -110 To win -240

NBA Selection
Miami Heat to win Money Line risk 100 to win 200
Miami Heat +5 ½ risk 110 to win 100


College Basketball
Thu 12/29 New Orleans U +22 -110 Kansas
Thu 12/29 Northern Illinois -8 -110 San Jose State

College basketball Selection
New Orleans U +22 risk 110 to win 100
San Jose State +8 risk 110 to win 100


NHL
Thu 12/29 Philadelphia Flyers +1½ -255 Carolina Hurricanes -1½ +215
Thu 12/29 St Louis Blues +1½ +125 Dallas Stars -1½ -145

NHL Selection
Carolina Hurricanes -1 ½ risk 100 to win 215
Dallas Stars -1 ½ risk 145 to win 100

 

Yeah Baby

5 wins and 2 loses will be adding 280 more points to the pile

Wednesday, December 28, 2005

 

Going Back Home to where I've made all my MONEY

NBA Basketball against the spread

Games:

Wed 12/28 York Knicks +5 -110 Orlando Magic
Wed 12/28 Phoenix Suns -3 -110 Washington Wizards
Wed 12/28 Chicago Bulls -4½ -110 Charlotte Bobcats
Wed 12/28 Seattle Supersonics +6 -110 Minnesota Timberwolves
Wed 12/28 Philadelphia 76ers -4 -110 Portland Trail Blazers
Wed 12/28 Boston Celtics +6 -110 Golden State Warriors
Wed 12/28 Memphis Grizzlies +2½ -110 Los Angeles Lakers

Selections:
Orlando Magic -5 risk 110 to win 100
Phoenix Suns -3 risk 110 to win 100
Charlotte Bobcats +4 ½ risk 110 to win 100
Seattle Supersonics +6 risk 110 to win 100
Portland Trail Blazers +4 risk 110 to win 100
Golden State Warriors -6 risk 110 to win 100
Memphis Grizzlies +2 ½ risk 110 to win 100


Good luck

Tuesday, December 27, 2005

 

Win a lot, Lose a few, and Push on some

As long as I can keep this up do I really care if I get blown out like the Jets game/ at least I thought I was getting blown out when I went to bed. They did come back to challenge the spread at least.

Tonight my money is on the Sun Devils. This is probably because of the five years it took me to graduate from Arizona State. Not gonna let any other games distract me.

Got my line in at -10 this morning, I've heard you can do better than me though.

Saturday, December 24, 2005

 

Gonna have to disagree with this one

But the goal of oddsmaking for the casino oddsmakers is not to predict the outcome of a game, it is to furnish the bettors with a betting line that will split the public in two with half of the people betting one side and half on the other.

Or what I should say is he didn't go far enough.

This here is a quote from one of my sponsers. Sorry can't remeber who - just click on all of them. lol

How did I pick Friday's games? Simple. Which betting community would be busy traveling and which would still be betting as if there was no tomorrow. Now I know L.A. going up against Orlando should have been a bet on L.A. on Friday, but sometimes you can't help what else you see.

My point here is this. Chicago, New York, Philly are cities where the offsprings migrate away from their parents. These folks whether they are currently living in North Carolina, Georgia, or California remain loyal to their old home town teams. They simply were to busy to bet. And what about the folks and family in these cities getting ready for the family members to come visit and stay with them from out of state? do you think they were betting on a Nicks game they couldn't watch? Do you think it would have made a difference whether the New Jersy line was +1, +3, +6, or +8? If the New Jersy/New York crowd is not in the position to bet, they arn't going to. The line shift did not balance the betting pool. It just swung the odds against the main players betting the game.

Now I know what you are thinking. Like people loyal to Georgia teams don't gamble - yeah right. The hard could fact is. The person that hop on a flight from Atlanta to New York will tell you. That New York airport was freaking insane compare to the Atlanta airport. Georgians were simply not disrupted by holiday travel the way a New Yorker was. Like I said before. Not betting L.A. was a mistake. What are you going to do. Seattle's push? Maybe I was pushing my luck, but damn tat city is so young. At least it's folks are.

My point?

The lines were not invented to place half the bettors on one side of the line and half on the other. There were invented knowing damn will whether the New Jersy line was +1, + 6, or +8 it just didn't matter. Nothing could swing the bettors over to New Jersy because they just had to much going on Friday.

Before I get emails asking me why Chicago doesn't lose against the spread on every single game, after all Chicago is Las Vegas biggest customer. All I have to say is when Chicago loses against the spread 3 times in a row. My home town is ready to turn on it's team in a heart beat. Bottom line is even if Chicago's pool of money is larger than it's oppotent - which it is every game. You can't have Chicago lose against the spread every day, or the bettors will turn. But why not let them win when most are not betting, so you can take them the next day?

Now I know Chicago didn't play Friday. But the Bears are playing Sunday. So now what? Up here in Chicago we are all settled in. Are we betting? What can be gain with us losing against the spread? What can be gain with us beating the spread?

If you were the Star Dust Hotel and Casino what would you do? If Chicago covers the spread tomorrow. This will be done in the presense of family members with the good ole gambling vice and the talk of what they should have done. Could it be an investment for the next time? Stir the juices?

But how does the Star Dust Hotel and Casino play into what goes on in Chicago? Ever been to the Star Dust? I'll admit it's been a few years for me. I remember the dozen old wise guys with their oxygen tanks and cigars waiting for the call from their bosses to let them know where they needed the money placed to balance their books. Times may have change, but I am betting on tradition here.

Time to make a complete @s out of myslef with my picks. What can I say - may have a gambling problem, betting on Christmas day

Chicago Bears -7 risk 110 to win 100
New York Jets +6 1/2 risk 110 to win 100

I placed my bets with nine only because it is the one I could remember my account and password off the top of my head. If you are in a position to shop the lines - do it, a 1/2 point can be life or death.

I just thought if your gonna take my advise. You should know where it comes from. Yes i am influence by a teams ability. What can I say it cost me on the L.A. game.

 

3 wins 1 lost and 1 push

Merry Christmas everybody

That one push sure does make you think about the importance of shopping the lines.

I'm back where I grew up in Chicago. Will be watching the Bears tomorrow, but no gambling till I'm back in Baltimore.

Good-luck

Friday, December 23, 2005

 

Spread Updates - Nine 1/2 point specials

Nine Sport book just offered me a 1/2 point special on the basketball spreads. I hope they do the same for you. Just add or subtract 1/2 a point in your favor from their posted line.

We got in with some great lines early today. In fact the only game I saw worth the extra half point was New Jersy. With all the others the spreads moved 1/2 point or more in the wrong direction.

I'm adding New Jersy to my picks at 7 1/2 risk 110 to win 100 - bet it with Nine

Now of course if you think ole dogcrap did a horrible job picking today. That means this 1/2 pick is great deal for you. Pick the opposite of my early morning picks and get every game for a whole point different in your favor. Hmm could I be moving the lines?

 

Spread updates

Orland Magic is given ½ a point more at Race Book - see side bar

Race book is discounting the juice by a nickle on al basketball bets

 

Heading into the home stretch with the houses money

The Baltimore Ravins game is the way I like to see a win.

Here are some more games, may they turn out as well as our last.

NBA
Los Angeles Lakers -1.5 -115 Orlando Magic +1.5 -105
Utah Jazz +3.5 -110 New York Knicks -3.5 -110
Washington Wizards +9 -110 Phoenix Suns -9 -110
Dallas Mavericks -3 -110 Seattle SuperSonics +3 -110

Thanks to the shaved juice for the Orlando I'm going with Intersports today. Not all sport books always have the same juice and the same line. I't would be a shame if you lost by 1/2 point when there was another book that would have paid you. Check my side bar for your best choice.

Selection
Orlando Magic +1.5 risk 105 to win 100
New York Nick -3.5 risk 110 to win 100
Washington Wizards +9 risk 110 to win 100
Seattle Supersonics +3 risk 110 to win 100

Monday, December 19, 2005

 

Baltimore ravens

Green Bay Packers +3.5 -120 Baltimore Ravens -3.5 +100

The above is Intertops line for tonight's game. It is an unusual line. You may be able to find a different one and bet both side of the line.

Over at Nine (my horse racing book the point spread is the same but the payoffs are off by 2 points.

Checkout your options.

If you can find a 3 point line a 10 point juice you can buy 1 point from intertops to make it a 2.5 spread. Then bet 1000 with intertops on Baltimore and 1000 on your the Packers at your other book.

If Baltimore wins by more 3 points you would win 1000 from Intertops and 1000 from your other book. If Baltimore wins by more than 3 points you would lose 100 between the two books. If Baltimore wins by less than 2 or loses you would lose 100 (the cost of a point) between the two books.

To me that just isn't worth it. But look around you might find a book that instead of toying with the juice as nine did, they toyed with the line. If there is a 3 point line out there, or a 2.5 point line out there. The game has change big time.

The fact that the juice is being toyed with means these people don't like the dollar amount being place on Green Bay. The bets are obviously swamping the the Green Bay side of the line. There iis bond to be someone out there fixing the problem by shifting the line to encourage betting on Baltimore vs shifting the juice.

If you find that book, I want to know.


My bet for the night is Baltimore -3.5 pints 100 to win 100

Sunday, December 18, 2005

 

Won 2 out of 3 so far today

The odds have moved on this evening game. Taking advantage of the new line

Atlanta Falcons +3 +110 330 Chicago Bears -3 -130

Wager 100 on Atlanta with 3 points to win 110 - that's right we have a reverse juice.

 

4:00 game - money line - Detroit Lions

Cincinnati Bengals To Win -500 Detroit Lions To Win +350

Going with Detroit to win risk $20 to win $70

 

the long wait for bad NFL lines to take advatage of is over

Playing 3 football games today

Please note that Intertops is offering a money line on the Miami game, which I’m taking versus the traditional line.





New York Jets To Win +325 Miami Dolphins To Win -450 

Miami risk $112.50 to win $25.00


Arizona Cardinals -1½ -115 Houston Texans +1½ -105

Houston +1 ½ risk $105 to win $100


San Francisco 49ers +15½ Jacksonville Jaguars -15½ Over/under 37 ½

San Francisco/Jaguars Over 37 ½ risk 110 to win 100

Wednesday, December 14, 2005

 

Tonights winners

Last night I lost. I had a 7 ½ under go into over time to lose against the spread by ½. A favor that was in control during the whole game lose by a ½.. Such is life. I like my methods of picking them though. And will be looking forward to seeing the odds catch up to me this time.

NBA
Los Angeles Lakers +7 Memphis Grizzlies
Phoenix Suns +4 Dallas Mavericks
Houston Rockets +1 Golden State Warriors


College Basketball
UAB +4 Minnesota

NHL
Dallas Stars +1½ -260 Buffalo Sabres -1½ +220
Washington Capitals +1½ -110 Los Angeles Kings -1½ -110
Tampa Bay Lightning -1½ +210 Anaheim Mighty Ducks +1½ -250


Selection
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies -7 risk 110 to win 100
Phoenix Suns +4 risk 110 to win 100
Golden State Warriors -1 risk 110 to win 100

College Basketball
UAB +4 risk 110 to win 100

NHL
Buffalo Sabres -1½ +220 risk 100 win 220
Washington Capitals +1½ -110 risk 110 to win 100
Tampa Bay Lightning -1½ +210 risk 100 to win 210


I will be playing the ponies tonight. Check out that board.

 

I can't stand the green back ground

changing tonight to match my other sites

 

A quick summary of where I'm at

12/6/05 -240
12/7/05 -330
12/12/05 +490
12/13/05 -130

Pior total +1096

Total to date +886

Tuesday, December 13, 2005

 

You can't beat my record

Look at the results. And what is it costing you? NOTHING!!!!. None of you are clicking on those ads anymore, why should you I'm better than them. So I get no money from them - well once last week I got 24 pennies. Then there is the casino. Yes I get a small percentage of the money you lose to the sports book. WHICH HAS BEEN NOTHING. And lets keep it that way.

So I get nothing and as long as I do my job here I will get nothing more. The fact is you people are up more than any handicapping service could ever hope for. When these games cover the spreads, please click on those charity ads I have (I still get nothing for them).


NBA
Denver Nuggets -2.5 Charlotte
Los Angeles Clippers +7.5 San Antonio Spurs

College Basketball
Santa Clara +12.5 Oregon

NHL
Phoenix Coyotes +1.5 -240 Montreal Canadians -1.5 +200

Selection

NBA
Charlotte +2.5 risk 110 to win 100
Los Angeles Clippers +7.5 risk 110 to win 100

College Basketball
Oregon -12.5 risk 110 to win 100

NHL
Montreal -1.5 risk 100 to win 200

 

That's How it's Done

Let the cold streak fade and then come back with a vengeance.



Won every game last night.


I will see you all this evening

Monday, December 12, 2005

 

Well it's about time

NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves +1½ Philadelphia 76ers
Los Angeles Lakers +7½ Dallas Mavericks
New Orleans Hornets +12½ Phoenix Suns

NHL
Ottawa Senators -1½ +190 Colorado Avalanche +1½ -230

Selection
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves +1½ risk 110 to win 100
Los Angeles Lakers +7½ risk 110 to win 100
New Orleans Hornets +12½ risk 110 to win 100

NHL
Ottawa Senators -1½ +190 risk 100 to win 190

Saturday, December 10, 2005

 

Just ain't feeling hot today

try your hand at something different

http://dogcrapgreen.blogspot.com/

Friday, December 09, 2005

 

check out my dog racing blog

will be doing some live bets on Saturday. Go to the side bar on the right and click on the greyhound racing.

Thursday, December 08, 2005

 

Laying low

I'm not here to make money off you. Although the $.24 I made three days ago was nice!!! Go ahead and click on some of those ads!!

I'm here because telling you my picks forces me to take responsibility and helps prevent the compulsive urges. When the time ain't right to bet, don't bet. I'm not gonna risk my money and I hate to influence yours.

When I'm ready for the next winning streak I will be back.

Wednesday, December 07, 2005

 

checkout my horse picks also

For those of you looking to bet on basketball my picks were posted this morning.

I suggest you also check out my horse racing picks

 

Another day another bet

NBA 12/07/05 betting lines
Milwaukee Bucks +6.5 Philadelphia 76ers
Boston Celtics +2.5 New Orleans Hornets
Atlanta Hawks +9 Utah Jazz

Selection
Philadelphia -6.5
New Orleans -2.5
Atlanta Hawks +9

Tuesday, December 06, 2005

 

NBA Against the spread 12-06-05

Games
Toronto Raptors 8.0 Washington Wizards
New Orleans Hornets 7.5 Memphis Grizzlie
Los Angeles Lakers 4.5 Milwaukee Bucks
Boston Celtics 7.0 Houston Rockets
Portland Trail Blazers 13.0 Phoenix Suns
Atlanta Hawks 12.0 Denver Nuggets
Cleveland Cavaliers -2.0 Sacramento Kings
New York Knicks 6.0 Seattle SuperSonics

Selection
All agames are risk 110 points to win 100
Milwaukee Bucks -4 1/2
Houston Rockets -7
Phoenix Suns -13
Denver Nuggets -12
Sacramento Kings +2
Seattle SuperSonics -6

 

IT's PAY DAY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Total Summary
11-20-05 NFL Team-S Oakland -6 Washington Washington W 100
11-20-05 NFL Team-S Pittsburg -3 1/2 Baltimore Baltimore W 100
11-20-05 NFL O/U Oakland Washington 42 1/2 Under W 100
11-20-05 NFL Team-S Carolina -3 Chicago Carolina L -110
11-20-05 NFL Team-S Detriot 7 1/2 Dallas Detroit L -110
11-20-05 NFL O/U Carolina Chicago 34 Over L -110
11-20-05 NFL O/U Detroit Dallas 38 1/2 Over L -110
11-24-05 NBA Team-S Cleveland 3 Indiana Indiana W 100
11-24-05 NBA Team-S Seattle 3 1/2 LA Lakers LA Lakers W 100
11-24-05 NCAAF Team-S Pittsburgh 15 West Virgina West Virgina W 100
11-24-05 NFL Team-S Atlanta -3 Detroit Atlanta W 100
11-24-05 NFL O/U Atlanta Detroit 43 Under W 100
11-24-05 NFL O/U Denver Dallas 41 Over W 100
11-24-05 NFL Team-S Denver -2 1/2 Dallas Dallas L -110
11-24-05 NHL Team-ML Los Angeles Nashville 100 Nashville W 110
11-24-05 NHL Team-ML San Jose 195 Vancouver San Jose L -110
11-25-05 NBA Team-S Portland 3 Orlando Orlando W 100
11-25-05 NBA Team-S Dallas -0 1/2 Miami Dallas W 100
11-25-05 NBA Team-S Houstan 6 Memphis Houstan W 100
11-25-05 NBA Team-S New Jersey 6 Phoenix Phoenix W 100
11-25-05 NBA Team-S Chicago 11 San Antonia San Antonia L -110
11-25-05 NBA Team-S Golden State -2 Utah Utah L -110
11-26-05 NCAAF Team-S Marshall 10 1/2 Memphis Memphis W 100
11-26-05 NCAAF Team-S UAB -5 1/2 East Carolina UAB L -110
11-26-05 NCAAF Team-S South Florida -7 1/2 Connecticut South Florida L -110
11-27-05 NFL Team-S New England 3 Kansas City Kansas City W 100
11-27-05 NFL Team-S Cleveland 4 Minnesota Minnesota W 100
11-27-05 NFL Team-S St Louis -3 1/2 Houstan Houstan W 100
11-27-05 NFL Team-S Jacksonville -3 1/2 Arizona Jacksonville W 100
11-28-05 NBA Team-S New Jersy 8 Denver New Jersy W 100
11-28-05 NBA Team-S New York 7 1/2 Miami New York L -110
11-28-05 NFL O/U Pittsburgh Indianapolis 48 Under W 100
11-28-05 NHL Team-ML Detroit 110 Los Angeles Detroit W 121
11-29-05 NBA Team-S LA Lakers 13 San Antonio LA Lakers W 100
11-29-05 NBA Team-S Dallas 2 Milwaukee Milwaukee P 0
11-29-05 NCAAB Team-S Western Kentucky 8 UAB Western Kentucky W 100
11-29-05 NCAAB Team-S Colorado 2 Pennsylvania Pennssylvania L -110
11-29-05 NHL Team-ML Colorado Edmonton -115 Edmonton L -115
11-30-05 NBA Team-S New Orleans 8 Denver New Orleans W 100
11-30-05 NCAAB Team-S Minnesota 15 1/2 Maryland Maryland W 100
11-30-05 NCAAB Team-S Creighton -4 DePaul DePaul W 100
11-30-05 NCAAB Team-S Providence 8 1/2 Wichita State Providence W 100
11-30-05 NCAAB Team-S Duke -5 Indiana U Duke W 100
11-30-05 NCAAB Team-S UNLV 11 Oklahomo UNLV L -110
11-30-05 NCAAB Team-S Northwestern 6 1/2 Virgina Northwestern L -110
12-1-05 NBA Team-S LA Lakers 3 Utah LA Lakers W 100
12-1-05 NCAAB Team-S Nevada 4 1/2 Kansas Nevada W 100
12-1-05 NCAAB Team-S Northen Arizona 10 1/2 Denver U Denver U W 100
12-1-05 NHL Team-ML Ottawa Boston 210 Boston W 210
12-1-05 NHL Team-ML Calgary Detroit -170 Detroit L -110
12-1-05 NHL Team-ML Columbus 155 St Louis Columbus L -100
12-2-05 NBA Team-S Orlando 7 1/2 Memphis Memphis W 100
12-2-05 NBA Team-S Charlotte 8 Golden State Charlotte W 100
12-2-05 NBA Team-S Indiana -7 Portland Portland L -110
12-2-05 NBA Team-S Minnesota -3 LA Lakers LA Lakers L -110
12-2-05 NCAAB Team-S Stanford -6 1/2 Montana Stanford L -110
12-2-05 NHL Team-ML San Jose Buffallo -150 Buffallo L -110
12-2-05 NHL Team-ML Carolina 145 Dallas Carolina L -110
12-4-05 NFL Team-S Dallas 3 NY Giants NY Giants W 100
12-4-05 NFL Team-S Washington -3 St Louis Washington W 100
12-4-05 NFL Team-S Houstan 8 1/2 Baltimore Baltimore L -110
12-4-05 NFL Team-S Tennesse 15 1/2 Indianapolis Tennessee L -110
12-4-05 NFL Team-S Minnesota 2 1/2 Detroit Detroit L -110

Total Plus 1096


Summary of NBA
11-24-05 NBA Team-S Cleveland 3 Indiana Indiana W 100
11-24-05 NBA Team-S Seattle 3 1/2 LA Lakers LA Lakers W 100
11-25-05 NBA Team-S Portland 3 Orlando Orlando W 100
11-25-05 NBA Team-S Dallas -0 1/2 Miami Dallas W 100
11-25-05 NBA Team-S Houstan 6 Memphis Houstan W 100
11-25-05 NBA Team-S New Jersey 6 Phoenix Phoenix W 100
11-25-05 NBA Team-S Chicago 11 San Antonia San Antonia L -110
11-25-05 NBA Team-S Golden State -2 Utah Utah L -110
11-28-05 NBA Team-S New Jersy 8 Denver New Jersy W 100
11-28-05 NBA Team-S New York 7 1/2 Miami New York L -110
11-29-05 NBA Team-S LA Lakers 13 San Antonio LA Lakers W 100
11-29-05 NBA Team-S Dallas 2 Milwaukee Milwaukee P 0
11-30-05 NBA Team-S New Orleans 8 Denver New Orleans W 100
12-1-05 NBA Team-S LA Lakers 3 Utah LA Lakers W 100
12-2-05 NBA Team-S Orlando 7 1/2 Memphis Memphis W 100
12-2-05 NBA Team-S Charlotte 8 Golden State Charlotte W 100
12-2-05 NBA Team-S Indiana -7 Portland Portland L -110
12-2-05 NBA Team-S Minnesota -3 LA Lakers LA Lakers L -110

Total Plus 650
Total Wins 12
Total Lose 4
Total Push 1


I know - I have to leanr how to post this in a table. But would you rather pay for a pretty site with losing results. Or get mine for free?

Sunday, December 04, 2005

 

Heading into Sunday

I've been up since 4:00 am going through my books. Had one mistake. I won the Detroit under pick I had, but counted it as a lost.

Here are my NFL picks to date:

National Football
Wins Eleven
Lost Five
Push None
Total Points plus 550

A tough record to beat. I suggest you look at thye picks I have for today's games.

I'm going back though all my other numbers for the other sporting events and will post those soon. If you spot any errors, please let me know by Tuesday/(payday) with a quick note in the comment section.

Saturday, December 03, 2005

 

NFL 12-4-05

I may see my first reductions to my winnings in a while. You may have noticed a trend in my picks lately. When the folks visiting in Las Vegas go home from the National Rodeo, this trend will end. With the beating they have taken so far Vegas may let up on the cowboys before they go home (not sure if they have any money left to take). I’m backing off the college sports and the NBA. I will be back on Tuesday.

NFL Games

HOUSTON TEXANS +8½, BALTIMORE
TENNESSEE +15½, INDIANAPOLIS
DALLAS +3, NY GIANTS
MINNESOTA -2½, DETROIT
WASHINGTON -3, ST. LOUIS

Selection
Baltimore -8 ½
Tennessee +15 ½
NY giants -3
Detroit +2 ½
Washington -3

Good luck

Friday, December 02, 2005

 

Dogcrap Green - Who I am

If you have been following me from the begining, you must be wondering "How does Dogcrap Green do it?". you may think I either now everything about sports, or every freaking statistic. How else could I be picking games played between schools smaller than most community colleges one minute, and then sweep the NFL the next day.

The truth is I rarely watch any sports, never read the sports sections of a paper. Don't own a book on statistics.

So how do I do it?

I study the predetermine money flow.

when I was a student at Arizona State, because I had a bookie the other kids would place their bets with me. Living in a dorm I had friends from all over the country in every bookie's market. These bets these kids placed with me were typically $5.00. An embarrassing amount to pace along, so I never bothered. An interesting trend developed. 65% of the time 65% of the money was on the losing end and 35% would then be on the winning side of the bet. It got to the point to where if the pool of my bets were $35 on team "A" and $15 on team "B". I would then bet $200 on team "B" with my bookie. If the difference was $40 on team "B", I would bet $400 on team "A". That was one amazing winning streak I was on.

If the Star Dust Hotel and Casino has to print out dozen of lines. How can not only these people not be able to pick out of those dozens and dozens line 5 mistakes and exploit them? What is even more amazing is how day after day the losing money would study the stats and the players, and day after day find themselves on the losing end. And these losers were no more stupid than you, or me. In fact most were smarter than me.

Here is the best analogy I know of. Every construction company that builds multi-million dollar bridges has a small group of people that put the bids together with their detail opinion of the likely costs. On bid day fifty one uppers and fifty one downers circle this bid with their "expertise". Some disparately want the company to get the job. These experts will show why there is too much money in the bid. Others want to say "I told you so" a year into construction. These experts are the one downers. The truth is if they were looking at the same job with a 13 million price tag, or a 14 million price tag. They would utilize their expertise the same way. At the time of the bid I always knew who would be the one uppers and the one downers and how many of each there would be. In your business you may have something similar, we all know about the I TOLD YOU SO PERSON. A similar concept.

99.99% of all handicappers are one uppers and one downers.
The NEED the sports book to tell them the line so that they can say it should be trim two points. The positions these people will take on a game can be predicted. With every game playing today X% had the prejudice towards one side of the line and Y% had their on the other side. The question is whose money is the Star Dust Hotel and Casino going after? Because I have news for you. They know their customers would have bet the same way regardless of the line THEY INVENTED. A point to 4 points makes no difference to the better, but it of course makes a difference on your odds to win.

 

December 2, 2005 picks

NBA spreads
Games
ORLANDO +7½, MEMPHIS
INDIANA -7, PORTLAND
MINNESOTA -3, LA LAKERS
CHARLOTTE +8, GOLDEN STATE

College Football spreads
Games
LOUISIANA TECH +24½, FRESNO STATE

College Basket Ball spreads
Games
STANFORD -6½, MONTANA

NHL money lines
Games
SAN JOSE +130, BUFFALO -150
CAROLINA +145, DALLAS -165

Selections
NBA
Memphis -7 ½ 110 to win 100
Portland +7 110 to win 100
LA Lakers +3 110 to win 100
Charlotte +8 110 to win 100

College Basketball
Standford -6½ 110 to 100

NHL
Buffallo 110 to win73
Carolina 110 to win 160

 

December 1, 2005 Results

Do you folks understand to the degree I'm beating up the bookie? I enterd a battle of the blogs and got beat twice!!! Who cares about photos and blabbing? You want that, go to the ESPN site. This here is the only placeto go to get the winning results before the game. Day after day. Every sport played in America.

See again at 7:00 pm Eastern 12-2-2005

Results
NBA
(w) LA Lakers 105, Utah 101 +100
College Hoops
(w) Nevada 72, Kansas 70 +100
(w) Northern Arizona 63, Denver 78 +100
NHL
(w) Ottawa 0, Boston 3 +210
(L) Calgary 3, Detroit 2 -110
(L) Columbus 1, Saint Louis 4 -100

Subtotal +300

Previous Total +1,166

Grand Total +1,466

Thursday, December 01, 2005

 

Thursday Picks

College Hoops Against the Spread
NEVADA +4½, KANSAS
NORTHERN ARIZONA +10½, DENVER U

Selection:
Nevada +4 ½ 110 to win 100
Denver -10 ½ 110 to win 100

NBA Against the spread
LA LAKERS +3, UTAH

Selection
LA Lakers +3 110 to win 100

NHL Money Lines
OTTAWA -250, BOSTON +210
CALGARY +150, DETROIT-170
COLUMBUS +155, ST. LOUIS -175

Selection
Boston risk 100 to win 210
Detroit risk 110 to win 65
Columbus risk 100 to win 155

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