Monday, May 29, 2006
Just collected my money from 5Dimes
With out a doubt. The easiest and fastest collection I have ever had from a bookie
5Dimes now being put to the test
Just requested a few thousand from them. Lets see how long it takes.
I wont be betting until my Vegas money is all set up.
I wont be betting until my Vegas money is all set up.
Sunday, May 28, 2006
The bar tab was $12
My winnings were $22
Lucky for me the kitchen was close
So am I up a thousand for the weekend yet?
Lucky for me the kitchen was close
So am I up a thousand for the weekend yet?
Now it's time for money management.
Coasting in for the victory
May-28 8:05 PM Oakland K SAARLOOS -R +149 risk $100.00 to win $149.00
May-28 8:05 PM Texas/Oakland Point total u10½ +122 risk $100.00 to win $122.00
Sorry to the folks waiting for an email of my picks - not at home
May-28 8:05 PM Oakland K SAARLOOS -R +149 risk $100.00 to win $149.00
May-28 8:05 PM Texas/Oakland Point total u10½ +122 risk $100.00 to win $122.00
Sorry to the folks waiting for an email of my picks - not at home
Won both bets saturday
With $400 in the bank. Now is the time most would wager $100 to $300 so they can say they had a winning weekend. I think it's called "money management". Won't be hearing that nonsense here.
I feel comfortable about Sunday's Mets/Marlin Game.
Got $650 to win $500 on the game going over 9 points for the total.
I feel comfortable about Sunday's Mets/Marlin Game.
Got $650 to win $500 on the game going over 9 points for the total.
Saturday, May 27, 2006
Swinging for the Fences
should have booked this bet earlier.
Tomorrow's Mets/Marlins over is at 9 -130
wagering $650 to win $500
Tomorrow's Mets/Marlins over is at 9 -130
wagering $650 to win $500
Win by Luck - Lose by Skill
My roots lie in dog racing. Want to learn how to handicap horses - learn how to bet on dogs. Want to learn how to bet on baseball - learn how to bet on horses.
My days at the dog track has taught me to always ask myself when I'm winning - is it luck? When I'm losing the question is - is it because of my skill. You can be right and lose. You can be wrong and win. But luck evens out. If the dogs are hitting the first turn the way you predicted - you keep betting whether you are up or down. If you are off in your prediction - you go home by race 4 whether you are up or down. For today is not your day and luck will surely bite you on the ass if you give it time.
What the hell does dog racing have to do with baseball? I would never hire someone for a position that required algebra, if they didn't master calculus. I would never higher someone for a position that required calculus if they didn't master differential equations. Dog racing is the utilmit in handicapping. It's one level above differential equations.
Today was a good day so far. The possiblilty of losing the Mets/Marlin game were there. But those hitters were soooo close to the sweet spot. Tomorrow less skill pitchers will be going up against them. Tomorrow the hitters are going to be able to go to bed at a respectable time and get their rest. Today there was some amazing fielding and pitching by both teams. A defense that can't be repeated twice in a row.
Today we won by skill despite luck trying to beat us down.
You may be recieving a bunch of crap in your emails from other folks that have 30 years of baseball experience, they might hvae played in the minors, or possibly have relatives on one of the teams. Me. I survived the dog track and I think you know what my pick of the month will be for tomorrow.
My days at the dog track has taught me to always ask myself when I'm winning - is it luck? When I'm losing the question is - is it because of my skill. You can be right and lose. You can be wrong and win. But luck evens out. If the dogs are hitting the first turn the way you predicted - you keep betting whether you are up or down. If you are off in your prediction - you go home by race 4 whether you are up or down. For today is not your day and luck will surely bite you on the ass if you give it time.
What the hell does dog racing have to do with baseball? I would never hire someone for a position that required algebra, if they didn't master calculus. I would never higher someone for a position that required calculus if they didn't master differential equations. Dog racing is the utilmit in handicapping. It's one level above differential equations.
Today was a good day so far. The possiblilty of losing the Mets/Marlin game were there. But those hitters were soooo close to the sweet spot. Tomorrow less skill pitchers will be going up against them. Tomorrow the hitters are going to be able to go to bed at a respectable time and get their rest. Today there was some amazing fielding and pitching by both teams. A defense that can't be repeated twice in a row.
Today we won by skill despite luck trying to beat us down.
You may be recieving a bunch of crap in your emails from other folks that have 30 years of baseball experience, they might hvae played in the minors, or possibly have relatives on one of the teams. Me. I survived the dog track and I think you know what my pick of the month will be for tomorrow.
Are you a Degenerate Gambler
Here are the results of my test. click on image to enlarge
Checkout the side bar for the link to this test
Checkout the side bar for the link to this test
Saturday's baseball wagers
Lately I swich from focusing on the pitchers to looking at the batters. Most peeople at pitching and this has a tendacy to set the odds.
On that note a wager on the batters and the pichters both says bet Oakland over Texas today.
Risking $216 to win $200
Taking the over with the Mets/Florida game
- over 7 1/2 $220 to win $200
On that note a wager on the batters and the pichters both says bet Oakland over Texas today.
Risking $216 to win $200
Taking the over with the Mets/Florida game
- over 7 1/2 $220 to win $200
Over confidence
There are about 255 trading days in the market per year. This article claims shear luck should give you six 5 hand winning streaks for every 255 hands played.
The strangest winnings streak can happen in gambling. Many of you here signed on when I won 21 baseball games in a row. I had my reasons for my picks. It seemed sound to me. BUT I KNEW 21 IN A ROW MADE NO SENSE. THE NUMBER WAS TOO LARGE. IT WAS A FLUKE and I WARNED YOU. In horse racing I've been considering a new technique to put on my handicapping program. Trying to identify the money wagered with insider knowledge. I figure if I wasn't into gambling, but had some knowledge about a horse I work with at the stables and wanted to make some real money. I wouldn't bet show because it doesn't pay enough, I wouldn't bet the exacta because not being a gambler/just being a person with inside information I'm not interested in handicapping the other horses, and I wouldn't bet win because even with knowledge there is risk. The non-gambler with the inside knowledge would bet PLACE, at least the way I see it. The day of, before, and after the Derby I put this idea to test. I divided the percent of money place on place by the percent of money place on show for each horse in a race. Looking for the large imbalances. I won 44 races out of 46. Thank God for skeptatism, because I have never been able to repeat winning streak.
Whenever someone bets a half dozen or so games. Thy always have some methidology of makig their picks. If you win. Good for you, but one brick doesn't make a wall. Use caution when betting the next time.
TradingMarkets.com
The Greatest Emotional Problem Facing Traders
Friday May 26, 9:23 am ET
By TradingMarkets Research
Recently, in my TraderFeed blog, I suggested that traders faced a greater emotional hurdle than either fear or greed: overconfidence. Overconfidence is what leads us to take on too much risk for too little reward. It is what allows us to wager our hard-earned money on untested and unproven market signals. Indeed, almost by definition, beginning traders start their trading careers in an overconfident state. After all, in what other performance field--sports, music, or chess--would a newcomer enter a competition with experienced professionals and truly hope to compete?
Research reviewed by Scott Plous in his book "The Psychology of Judgment and Decision Making" suggests that overconfidence is greatest in situations where individuals have no better than chance odds of being correct in their judgments. One of the reasons for this is called the Gambler's Fallacy. A person who guesses market direction once a day and has a 50/50 chance of being correct will encounter, on average, about six occasions per year in which he or she is correct five times in a row. Some of these random traders will, by sheer good fortune, hit this streak early on in their career. According to researcher Ellen Langer, early (but random) experiences of success lead individuals to be highly confident in their ability--even when the task is guessing the outcome of coin tosses! This is because they are more likely to attribute success to internal factors--skill--than to situational reasons or chance. The gambler who experiences a (random) streak of wins becomes convinced that he has a hot hand and raises his bets accordingly. The result is predictably disastrous.
Do traders behave differently from gamblers? Research suggests not. Terence Odean found that traders who were most confident in their decision-making traded the most frequently--and lost more money than other traders because of the increased transaction costs. A provocative study from the London Business School presented traders with price data and asked the traders to make trading decisions based on the data. Traders were not informed that the data were generated randomly. The traders who expressed the greatest confidence in their decisions, not surprisingly, were also the ones who, on average, lost the most money. The "illusions of control" demonstrated by these traders can reach extremes bordering on the absurd. In Langer's studies in which coin tosses were presented as tests of "social cues", for instance, 40% of all subjects insisted that their ability to guess the outcome of the coin tosses could be improved with practice--and 15% believed that enhanced concentration and an absence of distractions would improve their results.
A different kind of overconfidence can be seen in surveys of traders and investors, asking them for their expectations for the market. Traders feel better about their ability to call market direction than is warranted. For example, in such surveys as those conducted by Investors Intelligence, over 70% of respondents pronounce themselves either bulls or bears--despite the fact that the majority of time the market is range bound. Research cited by Hersh Shefrin, in his review of behavioral finance studies entitled Beyond Greed and Fear, finds that traders are most bullish after extended rises--with inexperienced traders most bullish of all. That is paradoxical, because market returns historically have been greatest following years of decline, not years of strength. Similarly, it is not uncommon to see put-call ratios elevated after a five-day period of decline, despite the fact that returns, on average, are superior following five days of weakness than after five strong days. Quite simply, traders extrapolate from the past to the future--and confidently act upon these (false) expectations.
Is it possible to immunize oneself from overconfidence? My personal therapy for treating overconfidence has been to test out my trading ideas and calculate: a) precisely how often the pattern would have been successful if used in the past; and b) how much of a P/L edge was present over that time. Those statistics, which I report on my blog, ground me in the inherent uncertainty of markets and prepare me for the very real possibility, with any trade idea, that I will be wrong. This, in turn, has helped me greatly with risk management, as I am unlikely to wager a large proportion of my trading stake on any uncertain proposition--even when the odds are in my favor. The past is hardly a guarantor of the future, but by assuming that the future won't be better than the past, we can soberly assess the downside and avoid overconfidence.
The best trades, I find, have enough of a historical edge to make me feel confident about the idea, but also enough potential downside to prevent me from feeling overconfident. Planning for each trade being a potential loser may seem counterintuitive, but it keeps risk management sharp and overconfidence at bay. And that makes a world of difference to the bottom line.
Brett N. Steenbarger, Ph.D.
The strangest winnings streak can happen in gambling. Many of you here signed on when I won 21 baseball games in a row. I had my reasons for my picks. It seemed sound to me. BUT I KNEW 21 IN A ROW MADE NO SENSE. THE NUMBER WAS TOO LARGE. IT WAS A FLUKE and I WARNED YOU. In horse racing I've been considering a new technique to put on my handicapping program. Trying to identify the money wagered with insider knowledge. I figure if I wasn't into gambling, but had some knowledge about a horse I work with at the stables and wanted to make some real money. I wouldn't bet show because it doesn't pay enough, I wouldn't bet the exacta because not being a gambler/just being a person with inside information I'm not interested in handicapping the other horses, and I wouldn't bet win because even with knowledge there is risk. The non-gambler with the inside knowledge would bet PLACE, at least the way I see it. The day of, before, and after the Derby I put this idea to test. I divided the percent of money place on place by the percent of money place on show for each horse in a race. Looking for the large imbalances. I won 44 races out of 46. Thank God for skeptatism, because I have never been able to repeat winning streak.
Whenever someone bets a half dozen or so games. Thy always have some methidology of makig their picks. If you win. Good for you, but one brick doesn't make a wall. Use caution when betting the next time.
TradingMarkets.com
The Greatest Emotional Problem Facing Traders
Friday May 26, 9:23 am ET
By TradingMarkets Research
Recently, in my TraderFeed blog, I suggested that traders faced a greater emotional hurdle than either fear or greed: overconfidence. Overconfidence is what leads us to take on too much risk for too little reward. It is what allows us to wager our hard-earned money on untested and unproven market signals. Indeed, almost by definition, beginning traders start their trading careers in an overconfident state. After all, in what other performance field--sports, music, or chess--would a newcomer enter a competition with experienced professionals and truly hope to compete?
Research reviewed by Scott Plous in his book "The Psychology of Judgment and Decision Making" suggests that overconfidence is greatest in situations where individuals have no better than chance odds of being correct in their judgments. One of the reasons for this is called the Gambler's Fallacy. A person who guesses market direction once a day and has a 50/50 chance of being correct will encounter, on average, about six occasions per year in which he or she is correct five times in a row. Some of these random traders will, by sheer good fortune, hit this streak early on in their career. According to researcher Ellen Langer, early (but random) experiences of success lead individuals to be highly confident in their ability--even when the task is guessing the outcome of coin tosses! This is because they are more likely to attribute success to internal factors--skill--than to situational reasons or chance. The gambler who experiences a (random) streak of wins becomes convinced that he has a hot hand and raises his bets accordingly. The result is predictably disastrous.
Do traders behave differently from gamblers? Research suggests not. Terence Odean found that traders who were most confident in their decision-making traded the most frequently--and lost more money than other traders because of the increased transaction costs. A provocative study from the London Business School presented traders with price data and asked the traders to make trading decisions based on the data. Traders were not informed that the data were generated randomly. The traders who expressed the greatest confidence in their decisions, not surprisingly, were also the ones who, on average, lost the most money. The "illusions of control" demonstrated by these traders can reach extremes bordering on the absurd. In Langer's studies in which coin tosses were presented as tests of "social cues", for instance, 40% of all subjects insisted that their ability to guess the outcome of the coin tosses could be improved with practice--and 15% believed that enhanced concentration and an absence of distractions would improve their results.
A different kind of overconfidence can be seen in surveys of traders and investors, asking them for their expectations for the market. Traders feel better about their ability to call market direction than is warranted. For example, in such surveys as those conducted by Investors Intelligence, over 70% of respondents pronounce themselves either bulls or bears--despite the fact that the majority of time the market is range bound. Research cited by Hersh Shefrin, in his review of behavioral finance studies entitled Beyond Greed and Fear, finds that traders are most bullish after extended rises--with inexperienced traders most bullish of all. That is paradoxical, because market returns historically have been greatest following years of decline, not years of strength. Similarly, it is not uncommon to see put-call ratios elevated after a five-day period of decline, despite the fact that returns, on average, are superior following five days of weakness than after five strong days. Quite simply, traders extrapolate from the past to the future--and confidently act upon these (false) expectations.
Is it possible to immunize oneself from overconfidence? My personal therapy for treating overconfidence has been to test out my trading ideas and calculate: a) precisely how often the pattern would have been successful if used in the past; and b) how much of a P/L edge was present over that time. Those statistics, which I report on my blog, ground me in the inherent uncertainty of markets and prepare me for the very real possibility, with any trade idea, that I will be wrong. This, in turn, has helped me greatly with risk management, as I am unlikely to wager a large proportion of my trading stake on any uncertain proposition--even when the odds are in my favor. The past is hardly a guarantor of the future, but by assuming that the future won't be better than the past, we can soberly assess the downside and avoid overconfidence.
The best trades, I find, have enough of a historical edge to make me feel confident about the idea, but also enough potential downside to prevent me from feeling overconfident. Planning for each trade being a potential loser may seem counterintuitive, but it keeps risk management sharp and overconfidence at bay. And that makes a world of difference to the bottom line.
Brett N. Steenbarger, Ph.D.
blogger was down yesterday
But if you were on my e-mailing list you would be up $82.00 right now.
Friday, May 26, 2006
Two for three yesterday.
lets just go for two today.
Los Angles Dogers Vs Washington Nationals Dogers -118 risk $118.00 to win $100.00
Texas/Oakland Under u10½ -105 risk $210.00 to win $200.00
Los Angles Dogers Vs Washington Nationals Dogers -118 risk $118.00 to win $100.00
Texas/Oakland Under u10½ -105 risk $210.00 to win $200.00
Thursday, May 25, 2006
Let it Roll when you are on a Roll
I have a good feeling about my Boston game. Letting some roll onto the next
May-25 8:05 PM TEXAS/OAKLAND Under u9 +140 risk $100.00 to win $140.00
May-25 8:05 PM TEXAS/OAKLAND Under u9 +140 risk $100.00 to win $140.00
Tampa/Boston under 11 $170 to win $100
Looking good for the game in progess. Lets let some of it roll.
May-25 Tampa/Boston Under u11 -170 $170.00 $100.00
May-25 Tampa/Boston Under u11 -170 $170.00 $100.00
Baltimore/Seattle Under 9 1/2
Going with the under today $210 to win $200
Wednesday, May 24, 2006
How many pitchers does Seattle have?
Baltimore now has 17 hits against Seattle's 7 hits. The score is 14 to 4. I've been checking this game out on Yahoo. Every time I look there is a new guy pitching for Seattle.
I'm not so sure this inning is gonna end. I'm goining to bed
I'm not so sure this inning is gonna end. I'm goining to bed
Tuesday, May 23, 2006
Never bet for or against your home team
I know the rule well. But never seem to leanr my lesson. I was going to say Baltimore will beat Seattle tonight, But then I decided to go with the point total over. I figure Baltimore is gonna have lots of hits tonights. The nomarl point total is 9 with a minus 115 for the over. I went with 9 1/2 and a plus 105
Baltimore Seattle Over o9½ +105 $300.00 to win $315.00
Never watched American. I have no home team favorites here. I know you America idol fans are routing for the grey hair gey, or so I've heard from the chit chat. But tonight is different. Tonight is the night us folks that never watch the show watch. A hot chick always has the advatage in this senerio. PLUS I BETTING THE TEENAGE GIRLS and PRE-TEENS WILL STICK TOGETHER for one of their own tonight. Lets be honest - They are the ones that vote and vote and vote and vote until the fingers go numb.
K.MCPHEE WINS AMERICAN IDOL +175 $100.00 to win $175.00
Baltimore Seattle Over o9½ +105 $300.00 to win $315.00
Never watched American. I have no home team favorites here. I know you America idol fans are routing for the grey hair gey, or so I've heard from the chit chat. But tonight is different. Tonight is the night us folks that never watch the show watch. A hot chick always has the advatage in this senerio. PLUS I BETTING THE TEENAGE GIRLS and PRE-TEENS WILL STICK TOGETHER for one of their own tonight. Lets be honest - They are the ones that vote and vote and vote and vote until the fingers go numb.
K.MCPHEE WINS AMERICAN IDOL +175 $100.00 to win $175.00
Thursday, May 18, 2006
Chicago White Sox - 1 1/2 -115
Took the run line for the Sox tonight at 5Dimes
$230 to win $200
$230 to win $200
Tuesday, May 16, 2006
checkout my horse racing blog
got some picks in for tomorrows races
Sunday, May 14, 2006
5 Dimes sportsbook
I may have found what I was looking for.
5 Dimes a no frills book that offers great line - half the house take on baseball games!!! They a subsidary of a major book, plus they take Firepay.
If all works out I may have to bump Nine to second place on my list of favorite books.
5 Dimes a no frills book that offers great line - half the house take on baseball games!!! They a subsidary of a major book, plus they take Firepay.
If all works out I may have to bump Nine to second place on my list of favorite books.
Thursday, May 11, 2006
Nuts
All the sites I plug will be using Firepay as a deposit/withdrawal option. This way moving money between accounts will be much easier.
Current list of Books that will remain:
Nine
Intertops
Oasis
Sportsbook
MyBookie
BetCom
A couple more will be coming. The book I wanted to try didn't make the cut.
Current list of Books that will remain:
Nine
Intertops
Oasis
Sportsbook
MyBookie
BetCom
A couple more will be coming. The book I wanted to try didn't make the cut.
Tuesday, May 09, 2006
Are you Ready to Gamble?
In the past I deposited a few hundred and set out to when a few thousand.
Just ain't feeling that cocky this time. Beside I am heading back to Vegas in a month and a half. My goal when I left from Vegas last time was to never go to the ATM machine right up to the day I went Vegas, plus bring the cash i had in the pocket.
Not gonna quit happen. Looks like I'm a few hundred short. Time to go pick that money up the surest way I know how.
I will be taking my time picking off the "sure" bets with plenty of money to recoup in the event I was wrong.
Do to the turn around on my money. I will not be seeking deposit bonus that require heavy turn over and a lengthy time frame. Your objections may be different and a different book may suite you. Nine is still my favorite book, with Intertops a close second and Oasis running in the pack. Gonna try a new book for me though. Figure if I plug a book here I should use it. Going with Bet Reduction.Com with a multi-thousand deposit with goals of when a few hundred this month.
Just ain't feeling that cocky this time. Beside I am heading back to Vegas in a month and a half. My goal when I left from Vegas last time was to never go to the ATM machine right up to the day I went Vegas, plus bring the cash i had in the pocket.
Not gonna quit happen. Looks like I'm a few hundred short. Time to go pick that money up the surest way I know how.
I will be taking my time picking off the "sure" bets with plenty of money to recoup in the event I was wrong.
Do to the turn around on my money. I will not be seeking deposit bonus that require heavy turn over and a lengthy time frame. Your objections may be different and a different book may suite you. Nine is still my favorite book, with Intertops a close second and Oasis running in the pack. Gonna try a new book for me though. Figure if I plug a book here I should use it. Going with Bet Reduction.Com with a multi-thousand deposit with goals of when a few hundred this month.
Saturday, May 06, 2006
The Kentucky Derby has come and gone
Time to start betting baseball again.
Be sure to check out my horsing blog by click on the "More Dogcrap" on the right hand column.
The Kentucky Derby may be done. But the horse racing season has just begun
Be sure to check out my horsing blog by click on the "More Dogcrap" on the right hand column.
The Kentucky Derby may be done. But the horse racing season has just begun
Friday, May 05, 2006
Why won't you folks listen to me?
How many times do I have to tell you? Stay away from the Casino Games.
I know I said I would play until my Kentucky Derby money comes in, But three of you were kind enough to give me your money.
Bet placed at Intertops
Baltimore with the points
BAL (R Lopez) v BOS (Schilling) Spread Winner Odds Stake *Win
BAL (R Lopez) +1½ +105 USD40.00 USD82.00
I know I said I would play until my Kentucky Derby money comes in, But three of you were kind enough to give me your money.
Bet placed at Intertops
Baltimore with the points
BAL (R Lopez) v BOS (Schilling) Spread Winner Odds Stake *Win
BAL (R Lopez) +1½ +105 USD40.00 USD82.00
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