Saturday, May 27, 2006
Win by Luck - Lose by Skill
My roots lie in dog racing. Want to learn how to handicap horses - learn how to bet on dogs. Want to learn how to bet on baseball - learn how to bet on horses.
My days at the dog track has taught me to always ask myself when I'm winning - is it luck? When I'm losing the question is - is it because of my skill. You can be right and lose. You can be wrong and win. But luck evens out. If the dogs are hitting the first turn the way you predicted - you keep betting whether you are up or down. If you are off in your prediction - you go home by race 4 whether you are up or down. For today is not your day and luck will surely bite you on the ass if you give it time.
What the hell does dog racing have to do with baseball? I would never hire someone for a position that required algebra, if they didn't master calculus. I would never higher someone for a position that required calculus if they didn't master differential equations. Dog racing is the utilmit in handicapping. It's one level above differential equations.
Today was a good day so far. The possiblilty of losing the Mets/Marlin game were there. But those hitters were soooo close to the sweet spot. Tomorrow less skill pitchers will be going up against them. Tomorrow the hitters are going to be able to go to bed at a respectable time and get their rest. Today there was some amazing fielding and pitching by both teams. A defense that can't be repeated twice in a row.
Today we won by skill despite luck trying to beat us down.
You may be recieving a bunch of crap in your emails from other folks that have 30 years of baseball experience, they might hvae played in the minors, or possibly have relatives on one of the teams. Me. I survived the dog track and I think you know what my pick of the month will be for tomorrow.
My days at the dog track has taught me to always ask myself when I'm winning - is it luck? When I'm losing the question is - is it because of my skill. You can be right and lose. You can be wrong and win. But luck evens out. If the dogs are hitting the first turn the way you predicted - you keep betting whether you are up or down. If you are off in your prediction - you go home by race 4 whether you are up or down. For today is not your day and luck will surely bite you on the ass if you give it time.
What the hell does dog racing have to do with baseball? I would never hire someone for a position that required algebra, if they didn't master calculus. I would never higher someone for a position that required calculus if they didn't master differential equations. Dog racing is the utilmit in handicapping. It's one level above differential equations.
Today was a good day so far. The possiblilty of losing the Mets/Marlin game were there. But those hitters were soooo close to the sweet spot. Tomorrow less skill pitchers will be going up against them. Tomorrow the hitters are going to be able to go to bed at a respectable time and get their rest. Today there was some amazing fielding and pitching by both teams. A defense that can't be repeated twice in a row.
Today we won by skill despite luck trying to beat us down.
You may be recieving a bunch of crap in your emails from other folks that have 30 years of baseball experience, they might hvae played in the minors, or possibly have relatives on one of the teams. Me. I survived the dog track and I think you know what my pick of the month will be for tomorrow.
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