Saturday, February 11, 2006
From the Associates Press
Betting record surpassed, gaming board says
Nevada sports books won $8.8 of $94.5 million; Steelers parlays hurt many....
It went on to say the books made money because of all the idiots betting the under.
Despite the Steelers being the number one choice the books stilled made 10%. Now if the pay out 100 for every 210 place (assuming an even split of 110 on each side). Then the books should be making 5%. Instead they pulled in closer to 10%. Last year they pulled in nearly 20%.
Back to what I said in an old post. The purpose of the line is to maximize profits by placing the majority on the wrong side of the line. With every game there is a strong disposition as to how a person will bet. The position a person will take does not change with a few points of the spread. So why make the spread fair? The goal of the spread is not to split the bettors down the center. It to put the largest pile of predispositions on one side of the line and the smallest on the other.
Read the head line from the local papers, go to the bars, talk to the morons, and use some common sense judgment calls on how the money will flow. If you can predict which side of the line the majority will bet no matter what the spread. You can predict which side of the line the Star Dust Hotel and Casino is hoping will win.
There are some other things to consider. Lets say there are 9 basketball games playing. There is 1 in over 500 chance that every underdog will cover, a 1 in over 500 chance that every favorite will cover, a 1 in 500 chance that every point under will cover, a 1 in 500 chance that every point over will cover. I say there is a 100% chance that everyone of these will happen during the basketball season. It is in the vested interest of the book for this to happen. Because this would mean wiping out those who bet with a strong predisposition towards each particular situation. If you wipe out everyone, you have all the money. The books play the way a good poker player plays. You win when other people lose. Create the loser one at a time and eventual the money will flow your way.
With that being said. I probably picked the losers today (: I'm till standing behind my methods though.
Nevada sports books won $8.8 of $94.5 million; Steelers parlays hurt many....
It went on to say the books made money because of all the idiots betting the under.
Despite the Steelers being the number one choice the books stilled made 10%. Now if the pay out 100 for every 210 place (assuming an even split of 110 on each side). Then the books should be making 5%. Instead they pulled in closer to 10%. Last year they pulled in nearly 20%.
Back to what I said in an old post. The purpose of the line is to maximize profits by placing the majority on the wrong side of the line. With every game there is a strong disposition as to how a person will bet. The position a person will take does not change with a few points of the spread. So why make the spread fair? The goal of the spread is not to split the bettors down the center. It to put the largest pile of predispositions on one side of the line and the smallest on the other.
Read the head line from the local papers, go to the bars, talk to the morons, and use some common sense judgment calls on how the money will flow. If you can predict which side of the line the majority will bet no matter what the spread. You can predict which side of the line the Star Dust Hotel and Casino is hoping will win.
There are some other things to consider. Lets say there are 9 basketball games playing. There is 1 in over 500 chance that every underdog will cover, a 1 in over 500 chance that every favorite will cover, a 1 in 500 chance that every point under will cover, a 1 in 500 chance that every point over will cover. I say there is a 100% chance that everyone of these will happen during the basketball season. It is in the vested interest of the book for this to happen. Because this would mean wiping out those who bet with a strong predisposition towards each particular situation. If you wipe out everyone, you have all the money. The books play the way a good poker player plays. You win when other people lose. Create the loser one at a time and eventual the money will flow your way.
With that being said. I probably picked the losers today (: I'm till standing behind my methods though.
Subscribe to Posts [Atom]