Sunday, March 05, 2006
Tip of the Day
March Madness is coming!!!!!
With this comes the recreational gambler.
Also with this comes the never ending analysis.
Nearly every Joe and Jane will be putting $5.00 on their office pool. These folks will be seeking advise. They will take that advise, and then show off what they know.
Mass hysteria is ready to set in.
Here is a little interesting play that has been unfolding before our eyes. When two unknown schools played each other in the past week or two with spreads less than 4 points. The underdog kicked ass over and over again.
Everybody tries to show how smart they are by picking the underdog upset as one of their bets of they day. We all talk about he Cinderella teams and who they might be. They have recent facts to support their theories of what can and will happen. In fact opening round on March Madness supports their claims
Vegas knows!!!!
Vegas knows if team A is playing team B and A is favor by 2 1/2 point. It is team B that will get the positive press. If team A is favor by 6 1/2. It is then team A that will get the positive press. On the surfac this may seem backwards, but if you never realized the orginal line thought up was 4 1/2. You would despite all you think you know about basketball have a hard time detecting the 2 point swing. 99% of handicappers need to see someon elses thought and then use their knowlegde to tell you why one team is better than the other. There are one or two people out there that can independently handicap a game without knowing the spread, but these are few and far between. The mother load of handicappers are simply betting statistical trends. The same trends the odds maker are all fully aware of.
So if it is your job to invent a line to make money for the casino. And after all the number crunching you come up with a 4 1/2 spread for team A. What is the opening line?
Make "A" favor by 2 1/2 and everyone bets "B". Make "A" favor by 6 1/2 and everyone bets "A".
My hunch is that many of the 2 1/2 point lines we see are in fact favoring the favored by 2 points with anticipation that LOWERING the favor point requirement will actually trigger betting on the underdog.
What I like to do is first screen the way I think the house is thinking. This may give us 4 plays. Then look into the fundamentals of the teams and pick from there. It might be two games it might be all four. 2 points does not make anything a guarantee, it just hedges your odds.
With this comes the recreational gambler.
Also with this comes the never ending analysis.
Nearly every Joe and Jane will be putting $5.00 on their office pool. These folks will be seeking advise. They will take that advise, and then show off what they know.
Mass hysteria is ready to set in.
Here is a little interesting play that has been unfolding before our eyes. When two unknown schools played each other in the past week or two with spreads less than 4 points. The underdog kicked ass over and over again.
Everybody tries to show how smart they are by picking the underdog upset as one of their bets of they day. We all talk about he Cinderella teams and who they might be. They have recent facts to support their theories of what can and will happen. In fact opening round on March Madness supports their claims
Vegas knows!!!!
Vegas knows if team A is playing team B and A is favor by 2 1/2 point. It is team B that will get the positive press. If team A is favor by 6 1/2. It is then team A that will get the positive press. On the surfac this may seem backwards, but if you never realized the orginal line thought up was 4 1/2. You would despite all you think you know about basketball have a hard time detecting the 2 point swing. 99% of handicappers need to see someon elses thought and then use their knowlegde to tell you why one team is better than the other. There are one or two people out there that can independently handicap a game without knowing the spread, but these are few and far between. The mother load of handicappers are simply betting statistical trends. The same trends the odds maker are all fully aware of.
So if it is your job to invent a line to make money for the casino. And after all the number crunching you come up with a 4 1/2 spread for team A. What is the opening line?
Make "A" favor by 2 1/2 and everyone bets "B". Make "A" favor by 6 1/2 and everyone bets "A".
My hunch is that many of the 2 1/2 point lines we see are in fact favoring the favored by 2 points with anticipation that LOWERING the favor point requirement will actually trigger betting on the underdog.
What I like to do is first screen the way I think the house is thinking. This may give us 4 plays. Then look into the fundamentals of the teams and pick from there. It might be two games it might be all four. 2 points does not make anything a guarantee, it just hedges your odds.
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